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Patterns of strain accumulation and release offshore in subduction zones are directly linked to the potential for shallow coseismic slip and tsunamigenesis, but these patterns remain elusive. In this work, we analyze formation pore pressure records from three offshore borehole observatories at the Nankai subduction zone, Honshu, Japan, to capture detailed slip-time histories of two slow slip events (SSEs) along the outermost reaches of the plate boundary. Slip initiates ~30 kilometers landward of the trench; migrates seaward at 1 to 2 kilometers per day to within a few kilometers of, and possibly breaching, the trench; and coincides with the onset and migration of tremor and/or very-low-frequency earthquakes. The SSE source region lies in a zone of high pore fluid pressure and low stress, which provides clear observational evidence linking these factors to shallow slow earthquakes. 

Whether Earth materials exhibit frictional creep or catastrophic failure is a crucial but unresolved problem in predicting landslide and earthquake hazards. Here, we show that field-scale observations of sliding velocity and pore water pressure at two creeping landslides are explained by velocity-strengthening friction, in close agreement with laboratory measurements on similar materials. This suggests that the rate-strengthening friction commonly measured in clay-rich materials may govern episodic slow slip in landslides, in addition to tectonic faults. Further, our results show more generally that transient slow slip can arise in velocity-strengthening materials from modulation of effective normal stress through pore pressure fluctuations. This challenges the idea that episodic slow slip requires a narrow range of transitional frictional properties near the stability threshold, or pore pressure feedbacks operating on initially unstable frictional slip. 

Abstract Heterogeneity in geometry, stress, and material properties is widely invoked to explain the observed spectrum of slow earthquake phenomena. However, the effects of length scale of heterogeneity on macroscopic fault sliding behavior remain underexplored. We investigate this question for subduction megathrusts, via linear stability analysis and quasi‐dynamic simulations of slip on a dipping fault characterized by rate‐and‐state friction. Frictional heterogeneity is imposed through alternating velocity‐strengthening and velocity‐weakening (VW) patches, over length scales spanning from those representative of basement relief (several km) to the entrainment of contrasting lithologies (100s of m). The resulting fault behavior is controlled by: (a) the average frictional properties of the fault, and (b) the size of VW blocks relative to a critical length scale. Reasonable ranges of these properties yield sliding behaviors spanning from stable sliding, to slow and seismic slip events that are confined within VW blocks or propagate along the entire fault. 

Recurring slow slip along near-trench megathrust faults occurs at many subduction zones, but for unknown reasons, this process is not universal. Fluid overpressures are implicated in encouraging slow slip; however, links between slow slip, fluid content, and hydrogeology remain poorly known in natural systems. Three-dimensional seismic imaging and ocean drilling at the Hikurangi margin reveal a widespread and previously unknown fluid reservoir within the extensively hydrated (up to 47 vol % H₂O) volcanic upper crust of the subducting Hikurangi Plateau large igneous province. This ~1.5 km thick volcaniclastic upper crust readily dewaters with subduction but retains half of its fluid content upon reaching regions with well-characterized slow slip. We suggest that volcaniclastic-rich upper crust at volcanic plateaus and seamounts is a major source of water that contributes to the fluid budget in subduction zones and may drive fluid overpressures along the megathrust that give rise to frequent shallow slow slip.